Population decrease towards 2050.

The national population projection 2025, indicates that the Greenland-born segment of the population is expected to decline by approximately 20% by 2050. However, there is significant uncertainty in these calculations due to the limited size of the population.

The population projection shows the results of model calculations that, based on Greenland’s population gender and age structure as of January 1, 2025, as well as historical experiences, describe possible development scenarios towards 2050.

As with the other alternatives, only the part of the population living and born in Greenland is projected. The part of the population born outside Greenland is assumed to remain constant with the same gender and age distribution as in 2025 in all future years.



Table 1. Population Account
selected years
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2049
Start of Year 56.080 56.542 54.833 52.721 50.466 48.223 46.486
Born in Greenland 50.192 49.738 48.029 45.917 43.662 41.419 39.682
Liveborn 835 738 650 574 541 513 500
Deaths 496 502 526 533 540 523 498
Emigrated 957 1.215 1.171 1.106 1.026 974 921
Immigrated 790 659 639 629 570 549 508
Born in Denmark/Faroes Islands 4.537 4.150 4.150 4.150 4.150 4.150 4.150
Born in other countries 1.351 2.654 2.654 2.654 2.654 2.654 2.654
End of Year 56.252 56.222 54.425 52.285 50.011 47.788 46.075



The large cohorts from the 1960s will, in the coming years, reach ages with higher mortality, which is expected to be lower than the mortality experienced by previous generations at the same age. The average age of the population will increase from 35.7 in 2025 to 39.7 in 2050.

While about 800 children were born annually ten years ago, it is expected that in ten years, with the current low fertility rate, fewer than 600 children will be born annually.

Due to the opposing trends for children and the elderly, the demographic dependency ratio will not be significantly different from what has been observed in the past 40 years.



Se tabel i Statistikbanken



Regional projections



When the population is divided into regions, the uncertainty in demographic projections increases significantly. Only for Nuuk and possibly the largest primary settlements can calculations be reliably made using the employed method. For smaller localities, the population size is often too small to yield reliable results over a long-term horizon beyond a few years.

Nevertheless, the Statistics Bank provides detailed projection results, offering a wide range of applications. Users can, for instance, aggregate results into custom-defined age groups instead of being limited to fixed groupings.

The main scenario of the projection assumes a continued decline in fertility, decreasing mortality, and relatively high net emigration. These calculations are based on recent trends and developments, including domestic migration patterns.The figure illustrates the development of the proportion of the Greenland-born population by municipalities from 1999 to 2050.

Table 2: Greenland-born Population

2020 2025 2030 2035
Kommune Kujalleq 6038 5667 5272 4913
Kommuneqarfik Sermersooq 19207 19864 19362 18540
Qeqqata Kommunia 8691 8411 8128 7746
Kommune Qeqertalik 6119 5682 5307 4930
Avannaata kommunia 10119 10090 9657 9172
NA 50192, 14628 49738, 15722 48029, 15458 45917, 14866







Caveats

How many people will live in Greenland in 10, 20, or 30 years largely depends on political and economic decisions. For this reason, the regional projections are limited to the Greenland-born segment of the population.

Individuals born outside Greenland are held constant throughout the projection period until 2050. This poses particular challenges for Nuuk, where the number of individuals born outside the Kingdom of Denmark has doubled in just the past three years.



Although Nuuk has experienced substantial population growth over the past five years, it has only been possible to recruit labor internally from Greenland to a limited extent. This has necessitated the recruitment of labor from outside the country.When evaluating the results presented here—as well as those in the Statistics Bank (http://bank.stat.gl)—it is important to consider the potential effects of new initiatives, such as the new airports. These may include impacts from tourism, construction, service industries, and similar developments.It is crucial to emphasize that population projections are not forecasts but rather calculation examples illustrating how the population may develop under specific assumptions.



Population Projection for Greenland-born Residents

To have a robust basis for calculations, the projections focus solely on individuals born in Greenland. The national projections indicate a population decline by 2050, primarily due to falling birth rates, continued net emigration to Denmark, and an increasing number of deaths among the large birth cohorts from the 1960s. These cohorts will gradually be replaced by smaller ones in the 2030s.

Previous projections



Since 2012, all of Statistics Greenland’s projections have been available in the Statistical Bank, and to make comparisons easier, they are compiled in the table https://bank.stat.gl/BEEPALL.Figure 7 shows the projected age distribution in 2025 for the part of the population born and residing in Greenland.



Figure 7. Age distribution 2025, from previous projections



Figure 4 Regiongroups


The regional population projections divide the country into four regional groups:





The projections are conducted independently of each other, leading to minor differences in the results. For instance, the projection for Nuuk City and the Capital Region, divided by settlement size, shows a difference of 158 people in 2050.

For each region, the annual number of out-migrants is calculated based on recent years’ experiences. The out-migrants are then distributed to in-migration regions, also based on historical patterns.





Figure 6 Migrationmatrix by regions and sex

Fraflytningslokalitet
Tilflytningslokalitet
 Total
Hovedstad Hovedbosteder: 3000+ indb. Større bosteder: 700 - 3.000 indb. Bosteder: 200 - 700 indb. Andre lokaliteter
Hovedstad ... 48.6 34.3 8.6 8.5 100
Hovedbosteder: 3000+ indb. 40.4 ... 33.5 13.7 12.4 100
Større bosteder: 700 - 3.000 indb. 36.1 35.6 ... 15 13.3 100
Bosteder: 200 - 700 indb. 22.9 33.6 31.3 ... 12.2 100
Andre lokaliteter 19.8 38.2 27.5 14.5 ... 100


Detailed tables is in Statbank Greenland.



These tables has been updated:

BEEP25 Population Projections, 2025
BEEP25CALC Population Account1999 - 2050
BEEP25EMR Migration rates 1999 - 2049
BEEP25FERT Fertility 1999 - 2049
BEEP25FLYT Migration rates1999 - 2049
BEEP25MORT Mortality1999 - 2049
BEEPALL All projections 2012-2025